Saturday, January 20, 2007

Parental Repsonsibility

Okay... it has been about 3 years since I posted last. So something must have happened that prompted my return, much like Jack Bauer being released from Chinese prison. Well that's the first thing that is different.. I watch 24 now. I like it a lot, along with Entourage, The Shield, and a couple other shows every now and then.

But that's not why I returned. I've never forgotten about my lovely Blog. I am just typically too lazy to commit to any activity other than watching serialized tv shows. No, the reason I have returned - the reason I feel like I have something to say that is worth putting down on paper - are three reasons:

My oldest son is going through the process of First Communion/First Reconciliation (aka "confession" for all you non-Catholics) so he's really growing up and I have a lot of conflicting feelings about which bits of wisdom I should be bestowing on him

The presidency that I so scathing wrote about 3 years ago has gotten so much worse that I truly believe our country/society is over for a very long time, and never may recover;

And lastly, I am starting a new company - Zuku - and I have decided to chronicle the process.

So let me begin...As a parent - and one that has made my share of mistakes - literally everything we do with our children has a lasting impact. Some are "good", some require years of therapy and most are completely normal and benign. However, one of the most lasting effects we have on them is religious path we set them on based on our own set of religious beliefs. As my son is now going through a year of classes to receive the sacrament of the Eucharist and reconciliation, I have thought about my own beliefs and the simple fact that he is going to be a Catholic because I am one in name, and I am one because my Mom was, etc.

Well the truth be told, I am truly an atheist and I am wondering whether I should tell my son this and tell him that I think all the fantasy that he is being taught by these religious folk is complete nonsense. I mean, I tell him and his siblings that there is a Santa Claus for a few years more, but eventually we spring it on them, that - "hey" - this was all a harmless joke that resulted in them getting a few more toys than they otherwise would have. But this religion thing we keep believing forever and it is just as nonsensical. I mean everyone knows that reindeer can't fly, and there isn't some guy that goes to every house in the known world to drop off presents, and can get up and down chimneys with magic pixie dust, or whatever Santa uses to accomplish that trick. So why should I believe that some woman got magically knocked up by a spirit, and then her son did all kinds of miracles, and then finally he was killed but rose from the dead. And by the way this magically god has been around for billions of years and he is the evolutionarily advanced thing ever, but if I pray to him he might or might not answer my prayers. Come on.... the Fat guy in the Red Suit is more believable. And I am not just picking on the Catholics/Christians. I'm lumping Jews (yeah right... the seas parted for Moses, this god helped slay all the Israelites enemies and delivered them from their various captivities) and Muslims (don't even get me started on how fucked up this particular derivative of Abraham is) into this bucket too.

Now you might say, what is the harm? The message is good (except the Islamic message. and by the way, please don't try to tell me that there are plenty of good and kind Muslims out there and we have only seen the militant kind. Mohammad basically was a warrior and beat all his "converts" into submission. Any religion that treats women like it does is just fucked up beyond any other); It's important to have religion to form a common bond, etc. But I am not so sure. I don't think you need religion to have a moral code. I suspect that since virtually every culture has had a god or gods, then this served as the foundation for all civil society. I truly don't believe one needs the belief in a god in order to live in harmony with others. In fact, the existence of "my God is greater than your God" has probably been the raison d'etre for many many more wars and death than anything other cause.

I won't go into all the reasons that I am an atheist and quite comfortable with it. The bigger question is do I propagate the myth to my offspring because it is the accepted thing (and believe me, in this town and society I would be judged a more fit father if I came out of the sexual orientation closet rather than the religion closet) or do I communicate what I truly believe and allow him to reach maturity and then reach his own conclusions? A precedent was set when our first born was born... We decided that if he was a boy, we were not going to circumcise him. At the time, there was no evidence that existed that said the procedure had any impact - one way or the other - on a child's health, so the only reason to do it was societal pressure or religious reasons (there's that religious thing again). The grief we got from my parents and relatives for not "going along with the norm" was amazing, even when we explained our thinking. The classic observation was, well you are circumcised, so what are you going to tell you sons when they ask why they are different? Because I had the good sense to question accepted wisdom, that's what. I'm not saying that to pat myself on the back, but I am trying to stress that I am reasonably comfortable with thinking for myself and sticking with these beliefs. My biggest fear, quite frankly, is that if I do stake out this position with my children, then I might be setting them up for some grief from various parts of society who think this Atheist position is one notch below pedophilia.

Anyway, I think where I'm coming down on this is, go along with the crowd half-heartedly for the next few years and then once he is nearly finished with high school, confess my true feelings and let him decide on his own. I mean though it really is laughable to think that any of this hocus pocus magic fairy dust crap is even remotely true.

Next on the list is this pathetically criminal president and his administration (and I have to say that as I am typing this I realize that many of the same human characteristics that keep this religion nonsense alive, also allow people to keep expecting a different outcome from these lying sacks of shit). I have to say that finally a Democratic leader is finally starting to state the obvious, i.e being publicly dismissive of anything Cheney or Bush says with the simple statement that they have been absolutely 100% wrong on everything they have said or touched so why even give them the smallest modicum of respect on anything they have to say now.

Anyway, these characters have got this country so screwed when it comes to the environment, the deficit, global relations, the military. Virtually everything they are supposed to do as the Executive branch. I won't be surprised if this creep gets impeached, because he is just determined to do his own thing. I really think a constitutional crisis may yet occur.

And finally - Zuku. This the company I recently started. Basically the premise of Zuku is a web-based application that will allow anyone with a cellphone who is in a live meeting, e.g. a college lecture, politcial rally; a conference meeting, a continuing ed class, to text their questions to the moderator/lecturer, who can then chose to answer them during the class, ignore them, or answer them later via the web. The idea is that Q&A sucks and this is a 21st century way to conduct a meeting. The revenue model is that each submitted question gets a near real-time message or ad that is uniquely relevant to that user.

I have recently completed the detailed business requirements document for the software and we will begin coding this week. I have a working model of the app and I am definitely getting great feedback. I hope to have the beta out by end of March, if not sooner

Saturday, May 07, 2005

It's been nearly a year, so where do I begin

I'll first begin by saying that I have thought about the Rat often over the year but I just can't seem to get my act together. Where do I start this rant? I'll begin by listing a few of my favorite things: the Mac, the state of US politics, the markets, the US economy, the Helsinki protocol, and female ejaculations.

I love the Mac. I finally bought one this winter after only really using a PC. The Mac is pure elegance and intuitive design. The OS is completely superior and one has to love and appreciate the design and attention to detail on the hardware. Also the big complaint with Mac is that there aren't enough programs. While I would concede that on a few points, for the most part there is everything that one needs. I'll expound on the virtues of the Mac in a later Mac-only blog.

The republican party is getting worser and worser over the last 11 months. They won the Nov election and many a person has considered fleeing to Canada, Australian, and NZ. Maybe a little over- reacting but maybe not. The pres. thinks he has this great mandate and all these pundits have piled on the mandate and political capital bandwagon but really, where's the mandate? I mean the guy won by about 20 electoral votes and just a couple percentage points on the popular vote. By the way, I don't believe or trust the new electronic voting methods. I used one in FL but who knows what monkey business can go on. Speaking of elections, this year's FL was OH. This time the repubs didn't want to wait for the courts so they just prevented a bunch of urban voters from making it to the booths. The smugness of victory of these repubs is enough to make me vomit. Anyway I won't hash out the rants of my pre election thoughts, except suffice to say that the Pres is an idiot and bankrupting every aspect of country and most of the people deserve what they are getting because they reelected the moron.

Since then: we have the Republican Congress and President getting involved in the Schiavo case, which is clearly a state matter; a quest to overhaul Soc Sec, which I think is overall a good thing except that of course with Bush you can't trust anything he does. All private accounts will do is expand the deficit and allow the money management industry a new revenue track. If the president and congress really wanted to fix the solvency problem, they would do the following: set up the accounting of the "fund" separately - this would make the currents budgets honest because currently the quoted budget deficit includes FICA receipts as revenue so the deficit is understated, and then utilize a mix of stock's and bonds and alternative investments to increase the investment performance. 50 states do this and most countries, but for some reason we have chosen not to. Now that said, the private account idea is not a bad one, it's just that given our current deficits and what this admin has done in Iraq and with Medicare, I don't trust anything about it.

BTW Iraq is a never ending mess that we will not be getting out if anytime soon. There may or may not be a democracy there in 10 years, but there was never any WMD and that was the excuse given for war. Our troops our seriously under trained (I was in the Nasty Guard and if we are using the troops that I worked with, it's no wonder the insurgents are doing so well).

The markets: I don't know so I won't comment. I think in general a safer mix is incorporating global securities into the mix. Those of you who know me will conclude the following: this is more an indictment of what I think of the future state of the US economy rather than any new found belief in other countries' economies.

I think our economy is not doing well. The weak dollar is not a good thing; the deficit and the debt are not good things; our schools blow; we are debating whether evolution is a fact or creationism (intelligent design is the euphemism du jour), we have the pres basically dismissing science in favor of religious cockamamie; and in our quest for "homeland security" we have taken our eye of the global competitiveness ball. It's all in the quest for Bush and Cheney and their friends to amass more lucre.

Before I forget, I love Bush's comments about frustration w/ high gas prices: "I have asked Congress for an Energy Bill" Well his idea of a bill is one in which more oil pumped out of the ground and nothing is done about consumption. But the thing with Bush is, he may speak the words but that absolutely means the actions won't follow, and in fact the opposite will happen. Cynicism at its highest point. Western civilization in general and our country in particular is completely dependent on oil and we need to eliminate it completely. Using oil is enriching and empowering the most corrupt and dangerous parts of the world: the Middle East, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, Texas, etc.

Okay I'll quickly get to the last two points: first Helsinki Protocol. This is a protocol I have established to govern dropped cellphone calls. If a call is dropped, whoever made the original call should redial. This solves the uncertainty around calling back and repeatedly going into voicemail. Why Helsinki? Because I wanted to name if after a city to sound legit, and since Helsinki or Finland is closely associated with cellphones in general (and Nokia in particular) I chose Helsinki. My idea, my protocol, my choice.

Next female ejaculation. I really don't want to go into it here because I don't have any video exhibits, but you just got to see it to believe it! A 10.

Friday, June 25, 2004

A Brief Commentary on the State of the Asset Bubble

Since I am commenting on bubbles, let me share with you a few observations I have made after doing a little research on this phenom known as Interest Only mortgages. As you may have picked up from our various conversations over the last year, I have concluded that the cause of the run up in real estate values has been not just the reduction in rates, but more importantly the new loan structures that have been popping up . The most prevalent of these have been the Interest Only loans. In places like CA and FL, and other major markets, these loans are easily 50% of the volume in the last 6-12 months. Also increasing have been what are called Stated Income mortgages (where the borrower does not need to document his income); we also have another name for these mortgages - Liar Loans.

Anyway, let's look at the numbers, shall we ? (as I have also said over the years, based on my vast level of commercial banking experience, "Numbers don't lie - people do!") As of this past Spring, the payment on a 3-yr ARM I/O was approximately 51% of a what the payment would have been on a 30-yr fixed fully amortizing mortgage (3.5% rate on the 3-yr ARM I/O vs. 5.5% rate on the 30-yr fixed); and the I/O payment was 65% of a similar rate amortizing 3-yr ARM. It gets scarier. In three years when the I/O begins to amortize (over the remaining 27 yrs. rather than 30 yrs.), assuming that the rate bumps up to its cap of 2% over the start rate, the rate is now 5.5% and the payment is double what it had been. Assuming that these borrowers qualified for these loans with what we call a front-end ratio of about 28-30% (to be fair, the numerator in this fraction includes not only P&I, but also taxes and insurance, which will probably not double in cost but can certainly rise), then this doubling of the payment will now mean that the new payment is between 50 and 60% of the borrower's gross income. Ouch! That's gotta hurt! Interestingly, the MI companies have not been charging any additional premium for I/O loans versus amortizing loans. To paraphrase a song title from the great and late grunge rocker Kurt C, "smells like a shorting opportunity." As an offset to massive defaults, the other trend it may portend, is another refi boom beginning in a couple years as the I/O's start amortizing. Think about it.

Let me move on to something a little more light-hearted (since I also promised when I started this blog some current events and culture). I saw the movie "Dodgeball" a couple days ago and it was great. I really need to take a notebook with me if I am going to comment on these movies since I seem to have the memory of RR in his golden years, but basically, you all know the plot, right? Group of lovable losers needs to play a rival group of steroid induced, Teutonic specimens to save their lowly gym from certain destruction by a demonic psychopath (sort of like "The Country Bears" without the great music and dance numbers). Anyway, the promos mention Ben stiller and V. Vaughan, and they are pretty good, but movie is made by a couple other characters, including Jason Batemen, and Rip Torn (even Lance Armstrong has a great cameo).

Saturday, June 05, 2004

Saturday June 5, 2004

Don't you love my optimism? Like this Blog will still be holding my interest in 2005.

Anyway, it was a good news day to comment on (I'll skip Tenant resigning opinion since that was yesterday's news, literally). Reagan died and Smarty Jones lost.

Reflecting on Reagan and his legacy has been building over the last couple days as rumors were leaking from CA that he was nearing the end. I have to say that it has been interesting to compare/contrast our current Pres with RR. They both were looked down upon by the intellectual elite, but at the core I think there is truly a profound difference. RR may have come across as a simpleton, but his core ideas - Ending the Evil Empire, recognizing that government had limits, i.e. shrinking Gov't, including tax reduction, rebuild defense - as it turned out really worked, and were born from years of real life experience.

On the other hand, we have the current President. He is launching ideas that are straight out the Democrat playbook. Unfunded mandates that expand the federal government, like no child left behind. Nice idea, doesn't work in real world. Schools are clearly an area that work more effectively on the local level. I suspect if there are problems with some schools on a national basis it is funding driven rather than what should the children be taught. Medicare expansion through the prescription drug benefit. Incredible expansion of the welfare state, and the budget deficit. And lastly the war in Iraq. The current occupant has ideas that he only communicated after launching this illconceived war in Iraq, i.e. he wants to remake the middle east as a paragon of democratic virtue. Yeah right, like anyone here at home would have signed on for that when he proposed launching the proactive war 18 months ago. I guess he thinks that since Israel is a democracy, than the rest of the middle east can become one. An then he wraps everything in these blatant evangelical Christian overtones, like he is on a mission from God. Very scary. And lastly the sheer incompetence of the senior civilian management coming out of the Pentagon. Between thrusting the urgency of launching the invasion because Saddam had his finger on the button and he was itching to push it, and thereby bypassing diplomacy with Turkey to let our troops launch from there for a northern front, to concluding that the 135,000 number was more than enough to secure a country the size of California. I mean how naive can they be. There were more people at the Belmont Stakes than that, which leads me to my next topic....

Smarty Jones lost his chance for the record books. Truly was sad because everyone wanted him to win and they seemed to need this Seabiscuit-like story to reach completion. My Mom and aunt and sister were all very disappointed, and it seemed that even the winning jockey and trainer were disappointed. I did notice that based on the odds before post time, that if one had placed a bet on all of the other eight horses, if any of them had won (except for Hard Luck Ten, which was 7-1) you would have made at least twice your money back. Almost a can't lose bet (unless the favorite wins, but clearly those were great odds). As it turns out the winner was something like 36-1, so he paid $72. Therefore, if you had bet $10 on each of the other eight horses, then you would have bet $80 and received $360. Too bad for Smarty Jones, but more importantly too bad for me for not noticing these outrageous odds until it was too late to do anything about it. Also, it would have been the classic hedge for me. Bet the opposite way of what my heart wants. If Smarty Jones wins, well emotionally I am happy, even though I just lost $80. If he loses, well than counting my winnings helps to heal a broken heart. This is pretty much what I do every time the Buckeyes play Michigan.

Thursday, June 03, 2004

Opening Salvo

Welcome to my forum to rant, postulate, digress, and generally comment, without any repercussion, on anything that happens to move me. I expect this will cover politics, pop culture, sports, books, social interactions, and anything else that happens to bug me that day. Hopefully this Blog will be humorous, long-lived, irreverent, prescient, and occasionally thought-provoking. If anyone ever happens to read any of this, feel free to comment on anything (except spelling and grammar) without any fear of physical reprisal.

I will open by saying I just returned this evening from a nice five-day vacation in SF with my family. Generally, had a great time. Took in a Giants game (they really know how to market a team). Saw most of the sites. Cruised the Bay. The kids had a great time. We rented these talking go-cart things one afternoon (www.gocarsf.com), which was really the highlight of the trip. Went to Napa one afternoon with the kids. Big mistake. Not really anything for them to do, so they went a little berserk in the car on the way back. Very hot up there in the summer. If anyone from SF needs a reprieve from the cold wet summer in the city, just drive an hour north, and you'll be is hot as Ali Baba and his forty thieves. Great City. Wish I lived there (along with a half-dozen other places).

A few observations:

I hadn't really followed the Scott Peterson case at all except for one article in VF about six months ago. The SF paper is covering it closely and the opening arguments began this week. I'm no attorney, but based on what I read in the paper, he may be a cad and a real scum but it doesn't sound like they have any real evidence that he killed his wife. He certainly isn't the first dude to cheat on his wife, but that doesn't make him a murderer. It sounds like the Modesto police really f'd up the investigation and pretty quickly eliminated all other suspects, and so now they are stuck prosecuting a case with a lot of coincidences but no physical evidence. I will definitely be following the case now.

I noticed a few fat people out there. I thought the major cities would be free of serious obesity but I was wrong. Definitely less than here and other places, but still there nonetheless. I just don't know how these fat people can get through the day. They truly have no shame.

Well that is it for my opening statement. As I get more comfortable with the forum, I will become more provocative.